Ethanol Price Trend 2026: Price Trends, Forecast, Chart, Prices And Index

The ethanol price trend in Q2 2026 showed two very different directions depending on where the ethanol came from. US-linked markets generally moved higher because of tighter domestic supply and firm export demand, while Brazil-linked markets moved lower because ample sugarcane-based supply created downward pressure. This difference between the two major origins was one of the main features of the global ethanol market during the quarter. Ethanol prices also experienced a broad correction in June, although a few European markets continued to rise.

Ethanol is widely used in fuel blending and industrial applications. Because of this, its price is affected by several factors, including production levels, feedstock availability, export demand, inventories, transportation costs, and buying activity. Q2 2026 showed how the same product can experience very different price movements depending on the origin and supply conditions behind it.

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Ethanol Market in Q2 2026

The global ethanol market was divided into two clear groups during the second quarter.

US-linked markets experienced price increases. Tight supply in the United States and firm export demand pushed FOB Houston prices higher. These higher US prices then passed through to importing countries such as India, the Netherlands, Belgium, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and others.

Brazil-linked markets moved in the opposite direction. Brazil had ample sugarcane-based ethanol supply, which put downward pressure on FOB Santos prices. Import markets sourcing ethanol from Brazil also saw lower prices during the quarter.

This origin-based difference is important because it shows that there is no single global ethanol price movement. The market can behave differently depending on production conditions, feedstock availability, and trade flows.

US Ethanol Price Trend

The United States recorded a strong increase during Q2 2026.

The US ethanol price trend increased by approximately 12.94% during the quarter for anhydrous ethanol on an FOB Houston basis.

The main reason was tighter domestic ethanol supply combined with firm export demand. As supply became less comfortable, FOB Houston valuations increased through the quarter.

Demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent buyers also helped keep the market firm.

However, the market did experience a correction in June. US ethanol prices declined by approximately 3.31% compared with May as buyers became more cautious and moderated procurement.

This shows that even when a market records a strong quarterly increase, monthly movements can still change direction.

India Ethanol Prices

India recorded one of the strongest increases among the US-linked markets.

The Q2 2026 ethanol price trend in India increased by approximately 16.83% for anhydrous ethanol imported from the United States on a CIF Nhava Sheva basis.

The increase reflected higher US FOB prices caused by tighter supply and firm export demand.

Demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent applications helped maintain buying interest. As a result, higher US export prices were passed through into Indian import valuations.

In June 2026, however, Indian ethanol prices from the US declined by approximately 0.78% as buyers moderated procurement.

India's market therefore showed a strong quarterly increase followed by a relatively small monthly correction.

Netherlands Ethanol Price

The Netherlands recorded the largest Q2 increase among the US-linked markets covered in the source data.

The ethanol price trend increased by approximately 15.09% during Q2 2026 for US-origin anhydrous ethanol on a CIF Rotterdam basis.

Higher US FOB prices were passed through to the European import market. Firm demand helped keep prices elevated during the quarter.

Unlike many other markets, the Netherlands did not experience a June correction.

Instead, prices increased by another 0.92% in June, as import demand remained firm.

This was one of the clearest examples of a market that continued moving higher even while many other US-linked markets started to correct.

Belgium Ethanol Price

Belgium also recorded a strong quarterly increase.

The ethanol price trend rose by approximately 13.94% in Q2 2026 for US-origin anhydrous ethanol on a CIF Antwerp basis.

The increase was linked with higher US export prices, tight US supply, and firm demand.

Belgium also differed from many other markets in June. Prices increased by a further 0.41%, rather than declining.

Firm import demand helped support the market during the month.

Saudi Arabia Ethanol Price

Saudi Arabia's ethanol price trend increased by approximately 12.08% in Q2 2026.

The increase in US FOB prices was passed through into CIF Jeddah import prices.

Fuel blending and industrial solvent demand remained supportive, keeping ethanol prices at elevated levels during the quarter.

In June, however, prices declined by approximately 2.17% as buyers became more careful with their procurement.

South Korea Ethanol Price

South Korea recorded a Q2 increase of approximately 12.55% for US-origin anhydrous ethanol.

Higher US FOB prices were passed through to CIF Busan valuations.

Demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent applications continued to support the market.

In June, prices declined by around 3.01% as buyers moderated purchases.

South Korea therefore followed the general US-linked pattern of a strong quarterly increase followed by a June correction.

Other US-Linked Markets

Several other countries also recorded increases during Q2 2026.

Colombia's ethanol price trend increased by approximately 11.16%, while Egypt rose by 12.58%. Indonesia increased by 11.54%, and the United Kingdom rose by approximately 13.03%.

Thailand recorded a 7.53% increase, Mexico increased by 9.85%, and the Philippines rose by approximately 12.08%.

Singapore recorded a 10.24% increase, Germany rose by 11.23%, Chile increased by 11.96%, and Canada rose by 11.57%.

Peru recorded a comparatively smaller quarterly increase of 6.69%.

Most of these markets experienced a decline in June as buyers became more cautious. Peru recorded the largest June decline among the US-linked markets covered, falling by approximately 13.19%.

Mexico declined by around 7.37%, Thailand by 6.22%, Germany by 6.16%, Indonesia by 5.71%, and Chile by 5.61%.

These monthly changes show that procurement behavior became an important factor toward the end of the quarter.

Brazil Ethanol Price Trend

Brazil followed a completely different path from the United States.

The ethanol price trend in Brazil declined by approximately 6.74% in Q2 2026.

The main reason was ample sugarcane-based supply. With sufficient availability, sellers faced less pressure to maintain higher prices.

FOB Santos export valuations therefore declined during the quarter.

Brazilian ethanol prices remained relatively subdued because supply availability was comfortable.

The decline continued in June, when prices fell by approximately 5.33% compared with May.

This created a clear contrast with the US market, where tight supply had pushed prices upward.

Brazil-Linked Import Markets

The lower Brazilian prices were also passed through to countries importing ethanol from Brazil.

The Philippines recorded a Q2 decline of approximately 7.26%, while Singapore declined by around 7.18%.

South Korea declined by approximately 6.94%, Japan by 6.38%, and the Netherlands by 6.14%.

Belgium recorded a decline of approximately 5.54%.

India experienced a much smaller quarterly decline of approximately 0.75%.

In June, Brazil-linked markets generally continued to fall.

The Philippines declined by approximately 6.36%, India by 5.79%, and Japan by 4.63%. Belgium declined by 4.81%, South Korea by 3.86%, Singapore by 3.74%, and the Netherlands by 3.29%.

The consistent declines reflected the continued availability of Brazilian sugarcane-based ethanol.

Why Origin Matters for Ethanol Prices

One of the most interesting lessons from Q2 2026 is the importance of origin.

Two shipments of the same general product can have very different pricing depending on where the ethanol is produced.

US-origin ethanol became more expensive because supply was tight and export demand was firm.

Brazil-origin ethanol became less expensive because supply was more abundant.

For importers, this creates an important purchasing consideration. The price they see depends not only on global demand but also on the supply situation in the exporting country.

Freight and local import costs then add another layer to the final price.

Anhydrous Ethanol Prices

The market data for Q2 2026 focuses on anhydrous ethanol, a high-purity form widely used in fuel blending and industrial applications.

Anhydrous ethanol prices were particularly sensitive to supply conditions during the quarter.

US-origin anhydrous ethanol prices increased across most importing markets because higher FOB Houston prices were transferred through international trade channels.

Brazil-origin anhydrous ethanol prices moved lower because of ample sugarcane-based supply.

This difference is important when analyzing international prices because a simple global average could hide major differences between individual origins.

Anhydrous Ethanol Forecasts

When considering anhydrous ethanol forecasts, several factors need to be watched closely.

Supply will remain one of the most important factors. If US ethanol supply remains tight, prices could continue to receive support. If availability improves, some of the upward pressure could ease.

Brazilian supply is also important. Continued availability of sugarcane-based ethanol could keep Brazil-linked prices under pressure.

Demand is another major factor. Fuel blending remains an important source of ethanol consumption, while industrial solvent demand provides additional support.

Buyer behavior also matters. The June corrections in many US-linked markets showed that buyers can respond to higher prices by reducing or delaying purchases.

Freight costs, inventories, export demand, and production levels will therefore all be important when assessing future price movements.

Ethanol Price Chart and Price Index

The Q2 2026 ethanol price chart would show a clear divergence between US-linked and Brazil-linked markets.

US-origin prices generally moved higher during the quarter, while Brazil-origin prices moved lower.

The ethanol price index similarly reflected these contrasting supply conditions.

For US-linked markets, the index direction was supported by tight supply and strong export demand.

For Brazil-linked markets, the index direction was influenced by abundant sugarcane-based supply and softer export valuations.

The June data added another interesting layer. Most US-linked markets experienced a correction, while Belgium, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom continued to rise modestly.

This means the price index should be viewed as a reflection of several different market conditions rather than a single universal price.

What Buyers Should Watch

Companies purchasing ethanol can follow several simple indicators when monitoring the market.

• US ethanol supply: Tight availability can support higher US-origin prices.
  
  

• Brazilian sugarcane supply: Ample supply can put downward pressure on Brazil-origin prices.
  
  

• Export demand: Strong international demand can increase pressure on available supply.
  
  

• Fuel blending demand: Changes in blending activity can affect ethanol consumption.
  
  

• Industrial demand: Solvent and other industrial applications can provide additional support.
  
  

• Inventory levels: High inventories can reduce immediate buying requirements.
  
  

• Procurement behavior: Buyers may reduce purchases after a sharp price increase.
  
  

• Freight costs: Transportation expenses affect the final delivered price for importers.
  
  

Following these factors together provides a much clearer view of the market than simply looking at one monthly quotation.

Conclusion

The Q2 2026 ethanol price trend was shaped by a strong difference between US and Brazilian supply conditions.

US-linked markets generally recorded significant increases. The United States itself rose by approximately 12.94%, while India increased by 16.83%, the Netherlands by 15.09%, and Belgium by 13.94%. Other US-linked markets also recorded increases ranging from moderate to strong.

Brazil followed the opposite direction. Its ethanol price declined by approximately 6.74% during the quarter as ample sugarcane-based supply kept export valuations under pressure.

The difference between these two origins then spread into international import markets.

June brought another change. Many US-linked markets corrected lower as buyers moderated procurement, while Brazil-linked markets experienced further declines. Belgium, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom were exceptions among the US-linked markets covered, with modest June increases.

Overall, Q2 2026 demonstrated that ethanol prices are strongly influenced by origin, supply availability, export demand, and buyer behavior. Future anhydrous ethanol forecasts will therefore depend on how US supply, Brazilian production, international demand, inventories, and procurement patterns develop.

For businesses monitoring the market, the most useful approach is to watch these factors together. The Q2 experience shows that ethanol does not necessarily move in one global direction. Supply conditions at the origin can create very different price trends across international markets.

About Price Watch™

Price Watch™ AI is an India-based, independent price reporting agency (PRA) that provides real-time price forecasts and data-driven insights into global raw material markets. It specializes in tracking prices, analyzing market trends, and delivering timely updates on plant shutdowns, supply disruptions, capacity expansions, and demand–supply dynamics. Price Watch™ AI reporting goes beyond prices to include grade-level insights, applications, and country-level demand intelligence you can trust. Powered by AI forecasting and over a decade of historical data, the Price Watch™ AI platform empowers manufacturers, traders, and procurement professionals to make faster, smarter decisions and turn market volatility into actionable opportunity.

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